Thursday, August 11, 2011

Great North Walk 100 - Mens 100 miler Race Predictions

The Great North Walk 100's is just a few months away and I for one am super excited about this race.

This years field looks really strong and i'd expect to see the race record shattered.

Just for fun, I decided to draw up some odds - i've only created odds for people i know and names i recognise so apologies if I have missed anyone out. Happy to add people.

This is just for fun and some of my researched 'stats' could be total BS.

Who do you think is going to take out this years race?

Nearer the time i'll also assemble a list for the women's race (ive purposely left out Beth Cardelli even though she is a very likely threat to take out the entire competition) and also lists for the 100km races.

p.s Ultra168 - I came up with this idea just got in there before me..

Andrew Vize 2-1 You cant go past the 2009 and 2010 champion. This will be his 4th year running and I’d expect his class, meticulous preparation, focus and knowledge of the course will get him across the finish line first. There’ll be some battles along the way but I can see the course record being butchered.

Jonathan O’Loughlin 3-1 With an impressive 11hr 09 TNF100 result to his name this year this member of QualityMeats will be push Vizey all the way. A talented athlete with good leg speed, if he can keep focused, turn up sober and have a good day there is no reason why he couldn’t come away with the win.

David Waugh 3-1 The current race record holder from 2007 is back for a vengeance after dropping at the 100km last year. He’s bee running ultras for some time now and knows what he has to take this one out. One of only 2 people to ever go sub 24 David is a real contender.

Matt Cooper 3-1 This guy knows the course with a 2nd place finish in 100km event in 2009 and a 3rd place finish in 2010 in a little over 26hrs. Coming off the back of a super strong win at the Alpine Challenge Matt has the talent to go all the way. A real contender for a podium finish if not the win.

Philip Murphy 5-1 A seasoned veteran with the 40-49 race record to his name in a very classy 26hrs 29 minutes. This guy has run them all from Hardrock, to Western States and the legendary Coast to Kosci. Expect him to use his experience to and go slowly for the first half and then work his way through the battlefield.

Richard Mountstephens 7-1 I hear Richard is going to be in the mix. I haven’t heard a lot about him but he has some great pedigree over the shorter stuff with an excellent 7.44 at Bogong to Hotham in 2008. A member of Quality Meats he was part of the team that broke the Trailwalker record in 2010.

Wayne Gregory 8-1 Tough as old boots. Wayne holds the 50+ record of 26.56 set in 2008 which says it all. Expect Wayne to soldier on to a strong finish if fully fit.

Chris Turnbull 8-1 Another member of QualityMeats record breaking TrailWalker team, Chris will be a force to be reckoned with. After a good finish at TNF100 Chris then embarked on an epic 900km adventure from Sydney to Melbourne….to save a flower….Bonkers he is and that’s just what you need to be to finish GNW100. After pulling out at the 100km mark in 2010 Chris will be determined to finish. Expect him to go out hard.

Darrel Robins 8-1 The old man on the block has a big heart and will be hard to stop. One of Australia’s most consistent 100 miler finishes I’ll be expecting Darrel to place high. With an astounding 2nd place finish at the grueling Northburn 100 and top 5 placings at GNW100 this dude is one tough competitor. Strangely enough, expect to see him finish holding hands with someone….

Gordi Kirkbank Ellis 9-1 They don’t come much tougher than Gordi. A relative newby to the Ultra scene Gordi has run the longest and toughest ultras in Australia. After a very impressive debut 29.18 finish last year expect to see Gordi in the 26hr range.

Philip Whitten 10-1 Philip is a super strong runner with endurance and leg speed to match the best of them. With a 2nd place finish at the Alpine Challenge and an 11.38 TNF100 up his sleeve Philip will be mixing it with the best. He has a 30.24 finish in 2009 and will no doubt be looking to improve on this. Hot conditions could prove challenging.

Andy Bowen 11-1 Andy just gets better and better. Quickly become the go-to resource for ultra runners, Andy wiped 2 hours off his TNF100 time this year to run in an 11.40 time. Andy knows what to do after completing the course in 32.57 last year and he’ll be looking to smash his time. Will his fundraising challenge of playing the worlds longest golf course on foot (over 1400kms in 16 days!!!!) effect his chances here? Only time can tell. Like the rest of us ex-pats the heat could be an issue. Andy is a well known heavy sweater so cool weather may just play into his hands.

Keith Hong 12-1 Tough competitor who just last year completed the grueling Coast to Kosci. He’s been here before as a pacer, how will he cope racing? Has a lot of heart and if he can manage his nutrition and stay on course he’ll be in the hunt.

Paul Every 12-1 Another seasoned veteran who has been plying his trade for an eternity now. RD of the infamous Coast to Kosci Paul will be hoping to get through unscathed as he seeks revenge after pulling out at the 100km mark last year. Does he have the training under his belt to go the whole way? I wouldn’t bet against him.

Dan Bleakman 12-1 A member of Ultra168 Dan has the credentials to finish up well here. After getting the monkey off his back with his first 100 mile finish at Northburn earlier this year Dan will be looking to hush his critics. He has a reputation for being navigationally challenged but if he gets his bearings right this year I’d expect him to place well. Top lad to boot.

Ian Gallagher 14-1 As a 100miler virgin I’ll be happy to just finish unscathed. The heat will be a massive factor and navigation could be an issue. If I reign my neck in and control the pace at the start then there is every chance I’ll finish. If the adrenaline takes control and I set off with the big boys then expect a monster blow up. Need to get to the start line in good nick, expect a long taper.

Roger Hanney 14-1 This witty and colourful ‘withnailandi’ lookalike is taking the step up to his first 100 miler. With 3 tough 100km finishes under his belt he’s ready to let rip. If he can remain injury free and put in a solid training block then I’d expect him to finish well.

Marcus Warner 14-1 Another ex-pat 100 miler debutant, Marcus is another member of Ultra168. With consistent finishes at TNF100 and a record time in the marathon pairs this year with Vize I expect Marcus to show his grit and finish well. 100 miles is a different ball game to 100kms but he’s mixing with the right crowd and if he can get to the start line fit then there’s no reason why he wont do well.

Kelvin Marshall 16-1 Kelvin’s been around the block a few hundred times and this race shouldn’t faze him. Likes the heat and loves the long stuff but how will he cope with the trails and navigation? He went sub 30 in 2008 can he do it again this year?

Kevin Heaton 16-1 A stalwart of the ultra scene, Kevin is a regular competitor. Consistency is the key and Kevin has this in bucketloads. Likes to do it tough and has been known to bring up his insides on occasion but you wouldn’t bet against him on finishing. Hard as nails.

Bill Thompson 25-1 This man is guaranteed to finish. Bill is a true legend of the sport and has been doing these races for years. The conditions wont bother him and he’ll have a thoroughly enjoyable time out there. Holds the current over 60’s record and for good reason. The man is a human metronome and gets value for money in the races he enters. Expect a 35.45 finish or thereabouts. If all fall before him then Bill will come up trumps.


  1. I run "with" Beth in berowra bush runners..which means she runs up front and i run down long will you taper for this race?

  2. hi Paul, yep she is a great runner and a nod to take the womens title if not the overall title!

    the taper will depend on where i am at injury wise. i'll take a whole month off if i need to!